By Salim Hammad
The world of horology is a universe of its own, governed by principles of craftsmanship, history, and, perhaps most powerfully, rarity. Within this universe, certain objects ascend to the status of myth, becoming the “holy grail” for collectors. The Patek Philippe Reference 1518 is one such icon, a watch that not only set a new standard for complicated wristwatches but also etched itself into the annals of auction history. While its yellow and pink gold variants are revered, it is the almost-unheard-of stainless-steel version that commands a mystique- and a price tag- that few other timepieces can rival.
With only four examples publicly known to exist, the 1518 in steel is an anomaly. Patek Philippe, the bastion of haute horology, primarily worked with precious metals. A steel case on a grand complication like a perpetual calendar chronograph was a deviation, an almost utilitarian choice for a watch that was anything but. This paradox- the “poor man’s metal” on a “rich man’s complication”- is precisely what fuels its desirability. The rarity of the material, more than the intricate mechanics within, makes it an object of almost fetishistic desire.
Pic: Monaco Legend
The story of the steel 1518 is a narrative of discovery and record-breaking sales. The last time the world witnessed a public auction of one of these watches was in 2016. Phillips, in partnership with Bacs & Russo, offered the watch (case number 508.473), which had been previously owned by a number of notable collectors. The bidding for the piece was a spectacle, an intense battle that saw the watch sell for a staggering CHF 11,002,000 (approximately $11.1 million at the time). This was not just a record for a Patek Philippe; it was, for a time, the most expensive wristwatch ever sold at auction, a monumental moment that cemented the steel 1518’s status as a market-defining artifact. It also demonstrated the incredible power of provenance and rarity in a market increasingly driven by speculation and the pursuit of a “perfect” collection.
That brings us to the present moment, a truly historic and unprecedented turn of events in the vintage watch market. In the span of a few months, two of the four known Patek 1518s in steel have become available. Monaco Legend Group has announced a private sale of one example, with a price tag of over $20 million, while Phillips is set to auction the very same record-breaking piece from 2016 in their upcoming “Decade One” auction in Geneva. The juxtaposition of these two sales- a private transaction and a public auction- sets the stage for a fascinating and high-stakes market drama.
Pic: Phillips
The Monaco Legend Group’s offering is a watch with its own compelling history. This is not the same timepiece that broke records in 2016; it is a different example, a watch that has passed through the hands of a who’s who of prominent collectors and has its own unique provenance. The decision to sell it privately, with a multi-million-dollar asking price, is a strategic move. For an object of this value, a private sale offers discretion and avoids the public scrutiny and unpredictability of an auction. It targets a specific, high-net-worth individual who is prepared to pay the premium for immediate acquisition and anonymity. The price of $20 million is a clear statement of intent, a benchmark set to surpass the previous public auction record and signal a new echelon of value for this horological unicorn.
Pic: Phillips
Conversely, the decision by Phillips to re-auction the 2016 record-breaker is a bold move that speaks to the confidence in the current market. The watch is returning to the block with an estimate of CHF 8,000,000 to 16,000,000, a range that acknowledges its past performance but leaves room for a new record. The auction setting creates a competitive environment, with multiple bidders driving up the price in real-time. This public display of desire and wealth is part of the spectacle that fuels the auction market and can often lead to a final price that far exceeds the initial estimate. The 2016 sale proved this, as the watch shattered its CHF 3,000,000 estimate.
The question on every collector’s mind is: what will be the effect of having two steel 1518s on the market at roughly the same time? Will the private sale at Monaco Legend Group hurt the Phillips auction, or will the auction hurt the private sale?
The arguments for a negative impact on the auction are compelling. The existence of a second steel 1518 could dilute the exclusivity of the piece being auctioned. A collector who might have been the sole potential buyer for the Phillips lot now has another option, potentially at a set price. This could remove a key bidder from the competition, and without a head-to-head battle, the price at auction might not reach the spectacular heights of 2016. Furthermore, the $20 million price tag at Monaco Legend Group could be seen as an overly ambitious valuation, one that could set a false ceiling and dampen enthusiasm for the more conservative auction estimate.
However, a strong case can be made that the dual presence of these watches will, in fact, be a net positive for both. The simultaneous appearance of two of the world’s most sought-after watches creates a perfect storm of hype and attention. It elevates the entire event from a single, high-profile sale to a horological event of global significance. The Monaco Legend Group’s private sale, with its high asking price, establishes a new baseline for the steel 1518, signalling to the market that a new valuation standard has been set. This could, in turn, provide a psychological boost to bidders at the Phillips auction. Instead of seeing the 2016 record as the ceiling, they may view the $20 million private sale as the new floor.
Pics: Phillips
For the Monaco Legend Group, the Phillips auction acts as a powerful marketing tool. It generates buzz, brings the Patek 1518 to the forefront of every conversation in the watch world, and reminds potential buyers of the watch’s unprecedented value. The auction creates a sense of urgency and competition, which can be leveraged to close the private sale. A collector who wants to avoid the risk of losing at auction and the potential for an even higher final price might be more inclined to secure the Monaco Legend Group’s offering at its fixed price.
Monaco Legend Group’s owner, Davide Parmigiani, provided a revealing statement that encapsulates the high-stakes game of the ultra-rare watch market. He confirmed that the steel Patek 1518 they have for private sale, initially priced at $20 million, remains unsold despite receiving two “very important and respectable offers.” His post is a masterclass in market confidence and competitive positioning. Rather than seeing the upcoming Phillips auction as a threat, Parmigiani embraces it as a validation tool. He humorously suggests that the public bidding spectacle will reveal the “exact market price” of the model, likely driving it far above the estimated reserve and making his own $20 million price tag seem like a reasonable, or even a bargain, by comparison. This strategic approach frames the private treaty sale not as a failure to sell, but as a deliberate act of patience, positioning Monaco Legend Group as the purveyor of the final, potentially “cheapest” steel 1518 available on the market after the dust settles from the auction.
In conclusion, the convergence of these two sales represents a unique and fascinating moment in the history of vintage watch collecting. It is a market test unlike any other, with the potential to either fragment the market or to catapult the value of the Patek Philippe 1518 in steel to stratospheric new heights. Given the insatiable appetite of ultra-high-net-worth collectors for genuine rarity and historical significance, it is more likely that the two sales will fuel each other, creating a synergy of value and excitement. The Phillips auction will be a barometer of public market sentiment, while the Monaco Legend Group’s private sale will be a testament to a single collector’s desire to own an undisputed icon. No matter the outcome, the Patek Philippe 1518 in steel will once again prove its enduring relevance as a true masterpiece and an investment-grade work of art.
